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House Price Outlook (9 June – 6 July 2008)

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This Month's House Price Crash Developments


> Nationwide reported UK house prices down 0.9% in June, down 7.3% from last year's peak.
> Rightmove revealed that home asking prices fell £2,936 (1.2%) in June to £239,564.
> Hometrack said that it now takes 10.3 weeks to sell a UK home, up 4 weeks from last year.
> RICS reported that UK house sales have fallen to their worst level in 30 years.
> 3,000 mortgage products were withdrawn in May and 10,000 have disappeared since March.
> CML reported that loans granted to first time buyers in April fell 36% compared to last year.
> It was a devastating month for housebuilders. Barratt’s shares down 97% from their peak.
> S&P/Case Shiller reported US home prices down 1.4% in April, 17.8% off last year’s peak.
> The NAR, the Commerce Department and the OFHEO all reported falls in US house prices.
> The inventory of unsold US homes and condos remained high at a 10.8 month supply.
> The inventory of newly built US single-family homes rose to a 10.9-month supply.
> RealtyTrac reported U.S. foreclosure activity up 48% and bank repossessions up 158%.


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Section Index

Points to note this month >
Which Way Home Focus on: Predicting The Future >
Which Way Home Note: Commodity Bubble? >
News Review >
High debt burdens lead to loan defaults, foreclosures & falling house prices >
Banks curb lending, individuals and corporations suffer as credit evaporates >
Stock markets price in corporate woes and fall >
Central Banks try to help, lowering interest rates and pumping out money >
Their currencies fall in value as a result >
Commodities rise as currencies fall in value >
Disposable incomes fall causing loan defaults, foreclosures & falling house prices >


Points to note this month...


In light of ongoing negative pressures in the financial markets I have revised my US and UK stock market guidance downwards to reflect an expected fall of 40% from the peak (previous estimate was for a fall of 30%).

It’s difficult to find high quality financial analysis which correctly interprets the current financial environment and harder still to find analysis which correctly identifies future trends. I have created a new section within “Resources” into which I will pull together some of the best sources of information available. Use them and you will be streets ahead of the competition in terms of financial thinking and, more importantly, in terms of the actions you take. Click here to find out more…

Back to Section Index >


Which Way Home Focus on: Predicting The Future


From feedback I have received recently I believe that the burning question on many of your lips is “How can I be so sure that we will see dramatic falls in property prices?” If you currently own a property you are probably intrinsically hoping that there is a flaw in my logic, something which I might have overlooked which will surprise us on the upside and make everything ok again. If you don’t own a property you probably want some reassurance that waiting is the right thing to do. How can you be sure that you are not losing money by renting, or that the property market will not just take off again and leave you behind? How can I provide a compelling enough argument to keep you on the sidelines rather than jumping into the market prematurely? Well, in order to answer these questions we need to look at the facts presented to us.

Firstly, the trends which present themselves to us daily are set to continue. These are the trends I use as category headings in the news review below, and for good reason. These are powerful, high-momentum trends which knock down anything in their path. The general public is struggling with high debts and rising product prices. Homeowners are defaulting on their mortgage debt in record numbers and their homes are entering foreclosure at an escalating rate. The fragile banking system is continually forced to raise more and more new money in order to stay afloat. Hundreds of billions of dollars of paper assets are being wiped off the face of the planet. The economy is sinking. Inflation is rising. Unemployment is rising. A fundamental shift in conditions would need to occur in order to reverse such trends, which simply isn’t possible.

So the trend is our friend and points us in the right direction. Jesse Livermore, possibly the greatest trader of all time, called this the “path of least resistance.” Currently the path is downwards and even the good news which comes out results in adverse impacts. The majority of our favourite markets are currently heading down and it is futile to fight against such a strong current.

In addition to the trend, we can look at some hard facts which fit hand-in-hand with the trend pattern. In the case of the property market, there are a number of key components we could consider – the ability to borrow, the level of interest rates paid on mortgages, our salaries, the size of our deposit etc. The premise of this site is that the value of property has been governed by the easy availability of cheap credit. Given the extremely high valuations of property and the huge sums of money required to buy a property, the ability to borrow tends to swamp all other factors. This is where homeowners run into trouble.

One of the most popular mortgages taken out by buyers is the two year fixed rate deal. At the end of the two year term borrowers have the option of moving to their lender’s standard variable rate, or to switch to a new mortgage provider and fix their mortgage for another couple of years. The problem which arises is as follows – a huge number of buyers took out these mortgages when interest rates were at historic lows. In 2005 and 2006 for example, rates were around 4.5%. If we flash forward to present time when these mortgages are currently up for renewal, borrowers are being forced to pay much higher rates of interest at around 7%. On a £200k, 25 year repayment mortgage, that amounts to an increase in the monthly payment of £300 per month.

Inevitably this will leave more households financially stretched and this burden is one of the main reasons we are seeing a dramatic increase in the number of delinquencies and foreclosures. In the UK around 2 million such mortgages will reset over the coming year, with the majority resetting this summer. In the US, where the first signs of trouble culminated in the start of the credit crisis, the outlook is even worse. $2.3 trillion of adjustable rate mortgages (ARM’s) were originated at the top of the house market, at low rates of interest in 2004, 2005 and 2006. In 2007, $370 billion of these ARM’s reset, initiating the house price crash. More than $500 billion ARM’s will reset in 2008, another $500 billion in 2009, plus another $700 billion in 2010 and beyond. Interest rates are resetting 3% higher than their initial teaser deals, causing calamity in the housing market. As it did last year, the pain experienced in the US will filter into the global financial markets and will lead to more problems for UK banks, lenders and homeowners.

When these facts are taken alongside the key trends discussed above it is difficult to see a path for house prices which points in any direction other than straight down.

And talking about predicting the future, if you want a glimpse into the future of house prices in the UK, read the US news headlines posted in the News Archive between July 2007 and today. We are a little behind them in terms of price falls, but catching up fast!

Back to Section Index >





Which Way Home Note: Commodity Bubble?


So, commodities….lets cut to the chase quickly so that we can move on. Commodities, including oil, are not in a bubble. The economy moves through different phases at different times. Some times stocks are favoured. Until recently the focus has been on property. Now it is commodities’ turn to shine.

When the stock market races away, as it did in the 90s, investors become mesmerised by potential gains. They turn all of their focus towards it and plough all of their money into it. As money feeds into stocks the price of commodities tends to languish. This situation deters commodity producers from expanding their operations and maintaining the current level of supply. Why continue to invest in your coffee, sugar or corn plantations if the price of these goods is falling? Why spend tens or hundreds of millions of pounds and 5-10 years drilling for oil or mining gold, silver or coal when the end product may not be worth much by the time you get it to market?

As stocks or house prices dominate investor attention the price of commodities falls and, more importantly, the supply of commodities therefore falls. But at some point there are no longer enough of these commodities to go around. People begin to scramble for whatever supplies are available and commodity prices begin to rise. Slowly investor attention turns back towards commodities, pushing prices up further. Since it takes a number of years for producers and miners to scale up their operations following the previous cut-backs, a multi-year bull market in commodity prices is created.

This is where we are now. Around 87 million barrels of oil are consumed per day, but only 85 million barrels per day are available. Someone therefore has to go without oil, or they have to pay more to secure their supply by biding up prices in the marketplace. Corn, soya beans, sugar, coffee, cocoa, rice, to name a few, are all experiencing dramatic price rises. None of these increases are forming a bubble in commodity prices. There simply isn’t enough of these products to go around which will push up prices for years to come, until their supply once again exceeds demand.

It is worth noting that the price increases have in-part been exaggerated by the fall in the value of the paper currencies we carry around in our wallets. For example, the value of the dollar has fallen over 40% from its peak a few years ago, pushing up the prices of goods when priced in dollars. This trend is also set to continue, hence the title of Commodity news section below.


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Back to Section Index >


News Review

In this next section I relate current news headlines to the trends we see emerging in the housing market and in other key financial markets. Happy reading…


High debt burdens lead to loan defaults, foreclosures & falling house prices…


In the UK…

House prices fell
Nationwide reported that house prices are plunging at their fastest annual rate since December 1992. The value of an average home fell £1,168 (0.9%) to £172,415 in June. The average house price is now down £13,629 (7.3%) from the peak last October.

Rightmove reported that home asking prices fell £2,936 (1.2%) in June to £239,564.
Hometrack reported that house prices fell for the ninth consecutive month to £170,500, down 3.2% compared to a year ago.

Sales of homes plummeted
The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors reported that house sales have fallen to their worst level in 30 years, far exceeding the depths of the last housing crash in the 1990s. The average number of houses that estate agents sold in the past three months was 17.4 - almost a third lower than a year ago.

Rightmove reported that there are now 15 properties available to every buyer, double the ratio seen this time last year and Hometrack revealed that the average length of time for a seller to receive an offer rose to 10.3 weeks, four weeks longer than it took a year ago.

Colliers CRE determined that industrial land values have dropped by 25% in London and the South East and are likely to fall further as the credit crisis continues.

This situation will get worse as mortgage lenders continue to take money off the table
The Trigold Product Index has revealed nearly 3,000 mortgage products were withdrawn in May. With just 13,992 products now available to mortgage brokers, that equates to a fall of 10,000 products in the past two months.

Furthermore, the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) reported that the number of new loans granted to first time buyers in April slumped to 18,500, down 36% compared to last year. The market for existing home owners also slowed with total mortgage deals falling by 38% versus a year ago.

Big mortgage lenders raised their rates or withdrew deals. Nationwide Building Society increased its mortgage rates by half a percentage point for the second time in two weeks. Borrowers with a 5% stake in their homes now pay nearly 8% for new deals. Barclays stopped offering two-year fixed-rate home loans and HSBC increased the arrangement fees for its “rate-matcher” mortgage deals by more that 50% after admitting that the higher costs of wholesale funding meant its offer could no longer be sustained. Borrowers who want a £250,000 remortgage fixed for two years at 4.79% will now have to pay a fee of £7,699.

Fixed-rate mortgage costs hit a 10-year high. Moneyfacts reported that the average new two-year fixed rate has reached 6.75%. Longer-term fixed deals have also become considerably more expensive, with the average five-year rate rising to 6.72%.

The knock on effects of the house price crash became evident
In June it was widely reported that thousands of homeowners have been plunged into negative equity as their homes became worth less than the loan taken out to buy them. You can read about the effects of negative equity here.

Gazundering, the practice in which homebuyers drop their offer price after they have agreed to purchase a property, has returned. According to Hometrack, the sale price being achieved as a proportion of the asking price stood at 91.6% in June.

We also found out that mortgage arrears continue to rise at Bradford & Bingley. Mortgages that are one month in arrears have risen 0.19% to 3.05% in June. Mortgages that are three months or more in arrears rose 0.01% to 1.78%.

As you will read later, the crash continues to have devastating impact on housebuilders.

In the US…

Home prices in 20 major U.S. metropolitan areas dropped another 1.4% in April and are now down 17.8% from their peak last July. House prices are also down a record 15.3% in the past year, Standard & Poor's reported. This is the 17th consecutive decline in prices. S&P's Case-Shiller index tracks sales of the same homes over time, so it's not influenced by the mix of homes sold in a period.
The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight reported that U.S. home prices fell 0.8% in April and are now down 4.6% in the past year. Prices were down in seven of nine regions. The OFHEO index has a broader geographic reach than the Case-Shiller Index but doesn't count homes purchased by subprime or jumbo loans.

The National Association of Realtors reported that the median U.S. home price sank 6.3% from a year ago in May. Sales of existing homes rose slightly, up 2% but the inventory of unsold homes continued to weigh on the market at a 10.8 months’ supply.

Commerce Department data showed that sales of newly built single-family homes fell 2.5% in May to an annual rate of 512,000 units, down more than 40% from a year ago. Builders continued to slash their prices to sell homes with the median sales price falling to $231,000 in May, down 5.7% from a year earlier. Despite these price cuts the number of homes on the market represented a 10.9-month supply at the May's sales pace, up from 10.7 months in April. The length of time a completed home sat on the market before sale rose to an average of 8.5 months, double the time it took in 2006.

RealtyTrac reported U.S. foreclosure activity up 48% from May 07, bank repossessions up 158%, default notices up 39%, and auction notices up 13%. Foreclosure activity has now worsened for 29 consecutive months. One in every 483 U.S. households received a foreclosure filing during the month. Bank repossessions accounted for 28% of the total activity and the biggest increase among the three types of foreclosure filings tracked in the report.

Back to Section Index >


Banks curb lending, individuals and corporations suffer as credit evaporates…


It was a terrible month for house builders, who are considering how much value their land holdings may have lost since the start of the downturn in a move which will lead to large asset write-downs. Investment bank Goldman Sachs warned that the sector’s earnings will suffer over the next couple of years stating that “the UK housing market is only at the start of a deep downturn, which could last up to three years”. Goldman lowered earnings forecasts for this year and next by 30% and 40% respectively.

During the month, HBOS wrote down the value of its equity stakes in UK housebuilders by half – or about £100m – because of the turmoil in the sector. The bank has stakes in six UK housebuilders, including Crest Nicholson (50%) and McCarthy & Stone (20%).

Barratt Developments continued to suffer. Its shares have plunged by 97% since their peak in February 2007 resulting in a dramatic reduction in its market capitalisation to around £150m. This compares unfavourably with its huge net debts of £1.7bn, a significant amount of which was taken on last year to buy rival Wilson Bowden at the top of the property market. The company is in talks to secure a rescue refinancing with lenders that will relax its banking covenants and help it ride out the property downturn. Barratt told staff that it would make about 1,000 people redundant, taking job losses in the construction industry to nearly 2,300 in just two days.

Taylor Wimpey is also suffering, announcing the loss of 900 jobs and the closure of 13 of its 39 regional offices. Britain’s largest housebuilder also announced £660m of planned write-downs of its land holdings. The company failed to secure emergency funding needed to ensure it would not breach banking covenants. In a trading statement, it said it had been in discussions with existing and potential investors with a view to raising further equity, but that it had been unable to secure a satisfactory transaction. It decided to undertake the equity raising because without an amendment to the terms of its banking facilities, negative market conditions might lead to it breaching its banking covenants when they were next tested in 2009.

City Lofts became the first major residential developer to fall victim to the credit crunch with around 250 of its unsold properties put into receivership. “City Lofts has requested its residential portfolio and one of its development assets be placed into receivership,’ a spokesperson said. ‘This is part of a restructuring process which City Lofts has been pursuing in light of the extremely difficult market condition which it and many of the other housebuilders and residential developers are currently experiencing in the UK.”

Bradford & Bingley shares tumbled when its largest shareholders were forced to step in and rescue the ailing mortgage lender after TPG Capital, the private equity group, pulled out of a £400m capital raising. The emergency rescue was triggered after Moody’s, the credit rating agency, informed B&B it was planning to cut the bank’s credit rating.

Barclays announced that it was seeking to raise £4.5bn by selling new shares to Qatar, Singapore’s Temasek Holdings, China Development Bank and the Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation of Japan. It is at the fourth major British lender to announce a share sale to shore up its capital ratios in the last three months.

In the U.S., Thornburg Mortgage announced it would need to raise new capital after reporting a $3.3bn first-quarter loss and Lehman Brothers said that it expects to post a $3bn loss for the second quarter and also said it needed to raise new capital through a $6 billion in a stock offering.

Citigroup warned of further large write-downs and credit losses in the second quarter, saying its business remained under pressure amid “unprecedented” market conditions. The announcement prompted investment bank Goldman Sachs to urge their clients sell Citigroup sending their shares down to the lowest level in nearly a decade.

Fortis also joined the capital raising party, unveiling plans to bolster its finances by more than €8bn ($12.6bn). Shares plunged on the news of an immediate placement of new stock, from which it hopes to raise €1.5bn. It abandoned this year’s interim dividend as part of what it termed “exceptional measures” due to tough market conditions.

Back to Section Index >


Stock markets price in corporate woes and fall…


It was the worst monthly performance for the stock market since the Great Depression in 1930. In the U.S. the S&P500 fell 7% and the Nasdaq fell 9%. The indexes have fallen in above average volume in each of the previous four weeks of declines, indicating lots of heavy selling. The S&P500 is now down 19% from its peak and the Nasdaq is down 22%. UK shares mirrored that trend with the FTSE All Share down 9% for the period and 21% from its peak.

It is always difficult to predict where the fall in the stock market will end up. Such estimations are more straight forward for house prices as you can base your target on investor valuations, rental yields or banks’ lending multiples for example. You could look at the stock market in a similar way and use price to earnings ratios, dividend yields and so on, but determining where the market will ultimately go is more of a grey area.

However, in light of recent events and my ongoing view of a fall in house prices of 50%, I have this month lowered my target for both U.S. and UK stock markets. My estimation is that we will see a fall of at least 40% from last year’s peak before the markets will be able to resume a meaningful uptrend. Previously my estimation was for a fall of 30% from the peak.

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Central Banks try to help, lowering interest rates and pumping out money…


UK

There was no Monetary Policy Committee during the period covered by this outlook. The next MPC meeting is scheduled for July 10th.

US

The Federal Reserve did a huge amount of talking about the risk of inflation and the possibility of rising interest rates this month. This is nothing but hot air. As I have written in the past, such words carry little weight in light of the significantly deteriorating economy, the utter fragility of the banking sector and the burdens of heavily indebted home owners, which precludes such action.

The Fed is compelled to make such comments so as to appear to have matters in hand and to attempt to protect the value of the dollar, but sophisticated investors see right through this smokescreen. In my opinion the next move in U.S. interest rates will be downwards.

During the month the Fed’s words were tested as the Federal Open Market Committee met to decide what to do with rates. It’s no surprise that they chose to hold rates steady at 2%.

Europe

With the same inflationary outlook as the Fed, the European Central Bank chose to act tough, raising its key lending rate by 0.25% to 4.25%. This is the first move in 13 months and is the highest rate level seen in 7 years. The ECB seems actually to do what it says it is going to, taking proactive steps to stem inflation rather than relying on hollow rhetoric. This is a good sign for the future of the Euro, but I will need to keep a close eye on any future developments before my view on Europe firms up.

Elsewhere

Sweden's Riksbank raised its repo rate by 0.25% to 4.5%, stating that further hikes will be necessary to hold down inflation. "Inflation has continued to rise in Sweden and is now at its highest level since the mid-1990s," the central bank said in a statement. "Over the year the repo rate will need to be raised further on a couple of occasions to prevent the high inflation rate from becoming entrenched. A higher repo rate will mean that inflation declines and is close to the 2% target a couple of years ahead." Inflation hit an annual rate of 4% in May, the highest level since the mid-1990s.

Back to Section Index >


Their currencies fall in value as a result…


The dollar had a volatile month, rallying during the first week before turning around and selling off hard over the last 3 weeks. The US Dollar Index, which compares the dollar's rate of exchange against other major currencies ended the period broadly where it had started it. The dollar is, however, stuck in a multi-year downtrend making one new low after another, interrupted only by the occasional rally. It may have taken a breather at the current level but nothing has changed to alter its downward path. This assumption is reinforced by the Fed’s lack of action to raise interest rates this month, undermining the value of the dollar. Expect the value of the dollar to continue to erode.

Back to Section Index >


Commodities rise as currencies fall in value…


Gold and silver

After consolidating in an orderly manner for 3 months, following its stellar rally past $1000oz, gold once again broke out to the upside. Rising 4.5% during the period to $933 gold has shown considerable strength, especially given the bloodbath experienced in the stock markets. Silver put in a sterling performance, closing the period up 5.5% at $18.10oz.

In an apparent shift in sentiment, gold and silver mining stocks also rose well during the period, a departure from their recent behaviour which saw them tend to sell off with the wider market. Interestingly, Vietnam suspended gold imports into the country in an attempt to support the depreciating local currency, the dong. Vietnamese investors have been rushing into gold as a hedge against skyrocketing inflation, which stands at around 25%.

Oil

Oil put in another strong showing, rising 7.7% to close around $145 a barrel. It broke multiple record highs all the way up. The high prices are translating into acute pain at the pump in the U.S., with gasoline hitting a record nationwide average above $4 a gallon. This will further erode consumers disposable income, leading to further corporate and housing woes.

Other Commodities on the Move

Corn shot towards a record $8 a bushel as floods damaged crops in the US. Corn stockpiles may fall 53% to a 13-year low before next year's harvest, the US Department of Agriculture said June 10. Soybeans and wheat also rose to recent highs. Cocoa prices rose to 28-year high amid concerns over the size and quality of this year’s crop from Ivory Coast, the world’s largest producer. Cocoa prices have risen over 50% this year. Sugar rose following a report this week from Brazil indicating that rain has slowed the harvest and cut output in the south and centre of the country. Coffee prices rose to their highest level in more than three months on concerns that winter frost in Brazil, the world's largest producer, will cripple coffee production. Global coffee demand has been outstripping production for several years, and 2008 year-end stock levels are expected to fall to the lowest in 48 years. Supplies of staples such as these are already tight as a result of soaring global demand.

Also during the month came the news that Chinese steelmakers agreed to a record increase in annual iron ore prices. Chinese millers agreed to pay Anglo-Australian miner Rio Tinto up to 96.5% more for their ore supplies this year, the largest ever annual increase and well above the 9.5% increase paid last year.

Back to Section Index >


Disposable incomes fall causing loan defaults, foreclosures & falling house prices...


The Office for National Statistics reported that headline unemployment jumped 38,000 in the three months to April from the previous three months. It is the second month running that the ONS has reported a rise in the UK jobless total as the economic slowdown starts to take hold.

Following the same trend the May purchasing managers’ survey reported a sharp fall in its employment measure as jobs in the service sector started to contract for the first time in almost five years.

At the same time, the cost of living keeps rising as oil and food hit record highs. The price of food, clothes, petrol and other goods are set to climb far faster than most salaries – leading to a severe downturn in families' standard of living. The warning came after the Office of National Statistics released "absolutely horrendous" factory inflation figures, which showed that prices last month increased at the fastest rate since records began 22 years ago.

Reported inflation in the UK surged 1.3% above target to 3.3% in May according to figures from the Office for National Statistics. Bank of England governor Mervyn King has now written an open letter to chancellor Alistair Darling to explain measures the BoE is taking to limit inflation which is up from 3% in April and 2.5% in March.

Reported Eurozone inflation rose in June to its highest level since its formation. Prices were 4% higher in June than a year earlier, twice as high as the ECB’s inflation target.

The impact of the above on the public’s wallets has been acute. Moneysupermarket revealed that rising mortgage or rental costs have forced 7% of people to take out a personal loan in the past year in order to cover their costs. It also found 9% of people have had to spend a lot more on their credit cards because of increased housing costs, and 20% of people in their forties have been forced to turn to loans or credit cards to keep their heads above water.

Turning to the U.S., America’s economy shed 62,000 jobs in June while the unemployment rate remained at a four-year high of 5.5%, the Labor Department reported. Job losses now total 438,000 in the last 6 months.

Soaring fuel prices helped drive up both U.S. consumer and producer prices in May while consumer confidence slid to a 16 year low in June. The Conference Board's monthly survey of consumers showed the overall index of consumers' mood fell to 50.4 in June, the lowest since 47.3 in February 1992. The index has now dropped by more than half since 111.90 last July, when the housing market troubles emerged.

The American Bankers Association revealed that the delinquency rates for home-equity lines of credit and bank cards rose during the first quarter, driven by ongoing stress in the nation's housing market as well as general economic weakness. The percentage of accounts more than 30 days past due rose to 1.1%, up 0.14%, reaching the highest rate since 1997. Delinquencies for credit cards rose 0.13% to 4.51% in the first quarter.

In response, U.S. credit card issuers are now beginning to slash credit lines, even for customers who pay their bills on time and in full. Cardholders who work in weakening industries like construction and finance are finding their credit lines suddenly reduced while consumers who work in other industries and bumping up against a variety of other new restrictions.

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