Stock Market Track Record

Below is a chart of the S&P500 and the FTSE All Share indices rebased to 100 at the start of the 2003-2007 bull market. I became very bearish on the outlook for the economy in 2007. Record stock market highs did not marry up with accelerating loan defaults, major corporate bankruptcies and credit destruction. It was only a matter of time before deteriorating fundamentals caught up with a runaway market. It was time to lock in prior gains and cut down exposure to equities.

As of my 2010 Outlook I have not yet listed a buy signal for equities as I still expect the rally of 2009 to correct at some point in the first part of 2010. Such a correction will offer a better entry point with lower risk, rather than stepping into the market at current prices.