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Money Supply, Inflation & Currencies

Currencies News from the Financial Times

  1. Intervention fears hit Asian EM currencies
    Many Asian currencies came off highs as risk of competitive devaluations appeared to heighten, though risk appetite on global markets continued to improve
  2. Equities firm as Ukraine tensions wane
    Asia-Pacific equities climb to fresh 6-year highs and US dollar holds near 6-week peak as investors place geopolitical concerns on back burner
  3. Arbuthnot eyes invoice discounting launch
    Secure Trust Bank plans financing business, underlining rise of challenger banks that are stepping in where the larger banks retreat
  4. Companies feel the pain of strong pound
    Everyone from chipmakers to Royal Mail are blaming forex for profit falls
  5. Equities shrug off geopolitical tensions
    US stocks briefly trade at record levels amid a broad easing of the geopolitical concerns that have dogged markets in recent days
  6. Credit Suisse faces calls for radical cuts
    Doubts surface over whether shake-up is enough
  7. Dollar back in step with equities
    The dollar and US blue-chips have moved from being strongly inversely correlated to being moderately positively correlated for first time since Lehman
  8. Chinese moves trump Fed’s effect on US
    Growth trouble in China may have a much bigger impact on US yields in 2015 and 2016 than the expected pace of US central bank tightening
  9. Dodd-Frank: safer banks, slower economy?
    Institutions say the landmark financial reform has come at a cost, including reduced credit to consumers and small business and a sluggish economy
  10. Risks to sterling may not be appreciated
    Essentially, relative to the dollar, the market has pretty much priced in expectations of monetary tightening by the Bank of England

Money Supply News from the Financial Times

  1. ECB caught up in economists’ spat

    The European Central Bank has found itself caught in the crossfire of a battle raging between the world’s leading macroeconomists.

    The Bank for International Settlements’ call last month for the world’s central bankers to hurry up and raise interest rates has reignited the debate over how to explain – and tackle – the financial and economic turmoil that has persisted over the past six years.

    Continue reading: ECB caught up in economists’ spat
  2. TLTRO: how well has the ECB targeted its loans?

    The European Central Bank has revealed the details of arguably the most important element of the package of extraordinary monetary policy measures it unveiled last month to rid the eurozone of the threat of deflation.

    On Thursday, the ECB announced exactly how its targeted longer-term refinancing operation, or the TLTRO, will work. Earlier forward guidance that rates were likely to remain on hold until the end of 2016 was watered down by Mario Draghi, ECB president, possibly in the hope that this would raise the take-up of the TLTRO funds.

    Mr Draghi also revealed that banks would be able to borrow up to €1trn from the central bank, should they smash targets, or benchmarks, set by the ECB. Lenders are already able to borrow an initial amount of $400bn in two auctions, scheduled for September and December. The €400bn figure corresponds to 7 per cent of their lending books to businesses and households, excluding mortgage loans.

    Continue reading: TLTRO: how well has the ECB targeted its loans?
  3. Live blog: Mario Draghi’s monthly ECB press conference

    Despite inflation remaining extremely low across the eurozone and signs that the recovery is weaking in the single currency bloc, the European Central Bank kept its interest rates unchanged at its monthly meeting. Analysts are now looking for Mario Draghi's assessment of the extraordinary measures introduced in June and details of any further measures..

    By John Aglionby and Sarah O'Connor

    Continue reading: Live blog: Mario Draghi’s monthly ECB press conference
  4. Japan’s inflation expectations: glass half empty?

    “Inflation expectations appear to be rising on the whole.”

    Check out the last 11 policy statements from the Bank of Japan: you’ll find the same line, an upgrade from a milder assertion about “some indicators” last July.

    But according to the second round of the BoJ’s survey of companies’ expectations for price rises – the grand-sounding “inflation outlook of enterprises”, published on Wednesday – expectations are not rising. If anything, they’re falling.

    Continue reading: Japan’s inflation expectations: glass half empty?
  5. Carney’s (old) new normal

    There are many uses of the phrase “new normal” in economics these days. Usually, it is used to signify lower growth or a different type of growth than in the pre-crisis period. Mark Carney went onto the radio this morning to talk about the “new normal” in monetary policy.

    Interest rates would be materially lower in future than the 5 per cent rate widely seen as normal before the crisis. The Bank of England governor’s words have been widely reported as a big new statement of policy.

    Is this a new policy?

    No. Carney first talked about future interest rates being “well below historical norms” in his January speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, which confirmed the BoE had ditched its original forward guidance linking interest rates solely to unemployment. The important passage was reported clearly in the FT at the time and is copied below.

    Continue reading: Carney’s (old) new normal
  6. ECB’s Cœuré backs student calls to overhaul economics curriculum

    Last month, students from four continents joined forces to call for reform of the economics curriculum.

    In an open letter, the students said they wanted their courses to delve into a wider range of economics theories and methodologies than the standard neo-classical model that dominates undergraduate teaching, and to learn more about the implications of policy-making.

    Speaking to those students was a heartening experience – all of them struck me as extremely thoughtful and articulate. Their desire for reform seemed driven by a curiosity about the world and what economics could do to improve it.

    I suspect they’ll be encouraged by comments made in a speech today by the similarly thoughtful and articulate Benoît Cœuré, who sits on the European Central Bank’s executive board.

    Continue reading: ECB’s Cœuré backs student calls to overhaul economics curriculum
  7. Live blog: Bank of England financial stability report

    Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England, presented the Financial Policy Committee's report on how it intends to keep the UK economy on an even keel. Most of the press conference was on what it intends to do about the booming housing market and which of its macro prudential tools it intends to use to cool it.

    By John Aglionby and Claer Barrett

    Continue reading: Live blog: Bank of England financial stability report
  8. Iraq’s economy in 5 charts

    As Iraq appears to be descending into all-out sectarian war, the implications for the oil-dependent economy are huge. Iraq is Opec’s second-largest crude exporter, so markets are already feeling a little jittery, sending crude oil to its highest since September on Friday. Here are five charts showing how Iraq’s economy has developed since the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq and where its vulnerabilities lie.

    Continue reading: Iraq’s economy in 5 charts
  9. UK productivity puzzle: the Bank of England’s answers

    Those hoping for a rapid pickup in UK productivity shouldn’t hold their breath.

    That’s the message from a new Bank of England paper which suggests the UK’s dismal figures are more likely to be the result of “persistent effects” from the financial crisis, rather than temporary, cyclical factors which will fade away as the economy recovers.

    Just under half (around 6 to 9 per cent) of the UK’s productivity gap can be explained by the hypothesis that the crisis resulted in underlying damage to the UK’s productive capacity:

    Continue reading: UK productivity puzzle: the Bank of England’s answers
  10. Where are Greece’s missing exports?

    Institutional weaknesses are mainly to blame for Greece’s dire trading performance, with exports around a third smaller than they should be, according to a new paper from staff at the European Commission.

    Aside from being the world’s largest shipping nation, Greece sits at the cross road between three continents and on one of the world’s busiest sea routes.

    Yet, researchers estimate its exports are approximately 33 per cent lower than would be expected based on the size of the Greek economy, its trading partners and its geographic position. The Commission staff dubs this “the puzzle of the missing Greek exports.”

    Continue reading: Where are Greece’s missing exports?